At this year’s NATO summit, President Trump delivered more than just criticism. He delivered an ultimatum. Targeting Spain by name, he accused the country of being the lone NATO holdout refusing to meet the alliance’s new 5% defense spending target. “They’re the only country that won’t pay the full level,” Trump said. “We’re going to make them pay twice as much. And I’m actually serious about that.”

Unlike previous U.S. presidents who used diplomacy or internal NATO pressure to encourage greater contributions, Trump made clear he’s ready to enforce alliance expectations using America’s economic muscle. That means tariffs. Spain doesn’t negotiate its own trade deals, it is bound by the European Union’s collective trade policy. But Trump doesn’t need a new agreement to impose costs. The U.S. can, and has, unilaterally imposed tariffs on specific countries, even EU members, through mechanisms like Section 232. Trump appears prepared to repeat that approach here.

In this case, Spain controls its own defense budget. Unlike trade policy, defense spending is entirely up to national governments. That’s what makes the threat so targeted. Trump is linking two unrelated policy domains, security and trade, and using one to force movement on the other. Spain, in other words, is being told: raise your military budget, or your exports will suffer.

The economic stakes are real. Last year, Spain exported €18.1 billion (approximately $19 billion) in goods to the United States, including petrochemicals and food products such as olive oil, wine, and oranges. During the same period, Spain imported €28.1 billion worth of goods from the U.S., according to official data. American firms operating in Spain have already warned against retaliatory tariffs, fearing disruption in key sectors like steel and tech. But Trump has never been shy about unilateral pressure.

Trump’s direct language—“I’m going to negotiate directly with Spain. I’m gonna do it myself.”—clashes with how Europe works. Spain cannot legally strike its own trade deal with the U.S., nor can it promise tariff relief. But it can raise defense spending. And that’s the point. The U.S. isn’t offering negotiation, it is offering consequence.